What are your thoughts and conclusions about these verifiable hard facts?
In the face of decades of continued and sustained failure by government, military and civilian, can the private sector, organised or otherwise, change the narrative? How?
(No partisan politics please. And no impotent lamentations. Just practical actionable recommendations …)
If you have any that we can collaborate to work on, please reply below.
If you have none, just ignore this.
Browsing through the table of content could enrich the context for you, ahead of reading …
1…Where did coffee and cocoa originate from?
ChatGPT said:
ChatGPT
Coffee is believed to have originated in the region of Ethiopia in Africa. The story often told is that an Ethiopian goat herder named Kaldi discovered coffee around the 9th century after noticing that his goats became energetic after eating berries from a particular tree. Coffee plants were then cultivated and spread through trade routes to Yemen and the Arabian Peninsula, where it became highly popular, especially in the Middle East.
Cocoa, on the other hand, originated in the tropical rainforests of Central and South America, particularly in regions that are now part of modern-day Mexico and Central America. The ancient Maya and Aztec civilizations in these regions used cocoa beans to make a bitter chocolate drink and even used the beans as currency. Cocoa then spread to Europe and the rest of the world after the Spanish conquest of the Americas.
Both crops eventually became global commodities, with coffee thriving in regions like Brazil, Colombia, and Vietnam, and cocoa being grown predominantly in West Africa, particularly in countries like Ivory Coast and Ghana.
You said:
2… Was there a time when Nigeria was the world’s highest exporter of cocoa?
ChatGPT said:
ChatGPT
Yes, Nigeria was once one of the world’s largest exporters of cocoa, especially during the 1950s and 1960s. At that time, cocoa was a major cash crop in Nigeria, particularly in the southwestern regions like Ondo, Ogun, Oyo, and Ekiti states. Cocoa contributed significantly to Nigeria’s economy, and the country was among the top producers globally, competing with Ghana and Ivory Coast.
However, Nigeria’s position as a leading cocoa exporter declined in the 1970s and beyond, due in part to the discovery of oil, which shifted the country’s focus toward petroleum exports. Government neglect of the agricultural sector and inconsistent policies also played a role in the decline of cocoa production during this period.
Despite this, cocoa still remains an important crop in Nigeria today, though the country is now far behind leaders like Ivory Coast and Ghana, which dominate global cocoa production.
You said:
3…Has China become a major producer of cocoa?
ChatGPT said:
ChatGPT
China is not traditionally known as a major producer of cocoa, but in recent years, there have been efforts to develop cocoa farming, particularly in the country’s southern regions, such as Hainan Island. This is part of a broader trend where China is attempting to diversify its agricultural sector and tap into global commodity markets.
Cocoa production in China is still in its early stages, and its output is small compared to major producers like Ivory Coast, Ghana, and Indonesia. China’s climate in the southern regions is suitable for cocoa cultivation, but it remains to be seen if it can become a significant player in the global cocoa market.
For now, China is more prominent as a consumer of chocolate and cocoa-based products rather than a major exporter of raw cocoa.
You said:
4…What proportion of China’s cocoa consumption is locally produced? Do they export any cocoa at all? To where?
ChatGPT said:
ChatGPT
China’s local cocoa production is still very small compared to its consumption, and the proportion of domestically produced cocoa is minimal. China imports the vast majority of the cocoa it consumes, mostly from traditional cocoa-producing countries like Ivory Coast, Ghana, and Indonesia. The country’s cocoa farms, primarily located on Hainan Island, are not yet producing at a scale that can meet domestic demand.
As for exports, China is not known for being a significant cocoa exporter. The limited cocoa produced is mostly used for domestic consumption, given the country’s growing demand for chocolate and cocoa-based products. Any potential exports are likely small and not significant in global trade statistics.
At present, China remains a net importer of cocoa to supply its growing confectionery industry rather than a cocoa exporter.
You said:
5…Is it possible to produce coffee or cocoa in any temperate country, at any scale?
ChatGPT said:
ChatGPT
Producing coffee or cocoa in temperate countries at a significant scale is challenging due to the specific climate requirements of these crops. Both coffee and cocoa plants are traditionally grown in tropical regions, which offer the warm temperatures, high humidity, and consistent rainfall they need to thrive. However, there are a few ways temperate countries have experimented with cultivating these crops:
- Greenhouse Cultivation:
In temperate regions, coffee and cocoa can be grown in controlled environments like greenhouses. By controlling temperature, humidity, and light, it’s possible to create conditions similar to tropical climates. However, this method is costly and energy-intensive, limiting its scalability. Such setups may work for small-scale production or specialty purposes but are not generally suitable for large-scale farming.
- Indoor Vertical Farming:
Another approach is using indoor vertical farming systems, which allow the precise control of environmental factors. This method is already used for some crops in temperate regions, but scaling it to meet global demand for coffee or cocoa is still quite experimental. Vertical farming for cocoa and coffee is currently more of a niche or research-based endeavor rather than a viable large-scale solution.
- Experimental Plant Breeding:
There are ongoing efforts to develop varieties of coffee and cocoa plants that can tolerate more temperate climates. These efforts are still in early stages, and success will depend on both developing hardier plant varieties and adapting growing techniques. Even if progress is made, yields are unlikely to match tropical production levels.
Challenges in Temperate Regions:
- Cold Temperatures: Both coffee and cocoa are sensitive to cold temperatures. Frost can be especially damaging to these plants.
- Day Length: Coffee and cocoa thrive in regions near the equator, where day length remains consistent throughout the year. In temperate regions, the variation in daylight hours could disrupt growth cycles.
- Rainfall and Humidity: Tropical plants require consistent moisture and humidity, which are hard to maintain in temperate climates without significant irrigation or climate control.
Examples:
- Coffee in California: There have been small-scale attempts to grow coffee in southern California, a region with a mild Mediterranean climate. These efforts are still experimental, and production is nowhere near the scale of traditional coffee-growing countries.
- Cocoa in Japan: Some small-scale cocoa cultivation has been attempted in Okinawa, Japan, where the climate is subtropical, but it’s not in the same league as tropical regions like West Africa.
Conclusion:
While it is technically possible to grow coffee and cocoa in temperate regions through methods like greenhouses or vertical farming, it is not currently feasible on a large scale due to the high costs and technical challenges. These crops will likely remain dependent on tropical regions for the foreseeable future, though advancements in agricultural technology may allow for more specialized or niche production in temperate areas.
You said:
6…List the world’s top 10 exporting countries for coffee and cocoa, with their annual export volumes and earnings, with the latest available statistics.
ChatGPT said:
ChatGPT
Searched 5 sites
Here are the top 10 coffee and cocoa exporting countries, along with their most recent export volumes and earnings:
Top Coffee Exporters (2022)
- Brazil – $8.86 billion (about 2.9 million tons)
- Colombia – $4.15 billion
- Vietnam – $3.37 billion
- Germany – $3.31 billion (Note: Germany is also a major re-exporter of coffee)
- Switzerland – $3.25 billion (mostly processed coffee)
- Honduras – $1.45 billion
- Ethiopia – $1.43 billion (producing about 298,500 tons of coffee)
- Indonesia – $1.29 billion
- Peru – $1.18 billion
- Mexico – $433 million (
) (
) (
).
Top Cocoa Exporters (2022)
- Ivory Coast – $5.7 billion (largest producer globally, responsible for over 40% of the world’s cocoa)
- Ghana – $2.4 billion
- Ecuador – $1.1 billion
- Nigeria – $740 million
- Cameroon – $700 million
- Brazil – $470 million
- Indonesia – $450 million
- Peru – $160 million
- Dominican Republic – $150 million
- Papua New Guinea – $110 million
Ivory Coast and Ghana dominate the global cocoa market, responsible for more than 60% of global production, while countries like Ecuador are growing in prominence for fine cocoa (
) (
).
You said:
7…Give similar statistics for groundnuts and cotton.
ChatGPT said:
ChatGPT
Searched 5 sites
Here are the latest statistics for the top exporters of groundnuts (peanuts) and cotton:
Top Groundnut Exporters (2023)
- India – $872.6 million (19.9% of global groundnut exports)
- United States – $629.1 million (14.3%)
- Brazil – $443.7 million (10.1%)
- Argentina – $434.6 million (10%)
- Netherlands – $420.4 million (9.6%)
- China – $415 million (9.5%)
- Sudan – $312.1 million (7.3%)
- Senegal – $220 million (5.1%)
- Tanzania – $90.7 million (2%)
- Mozambique – $71 million (1.6%)
These countries accounted for a large portion of the $4.13 billion total global trade in groundnuts (
) (
).
Top Cotton Exporters (2022)
- United States – $10.9 billion
- China – $12.2 billion (note that China is both a major exporter and importer)
- India – $7.27 billion
- Brazil – $3.93 billion
- Pakistan – $3.73 billion
- Turkey – $2.9 billion
- Vietnam – $5.41 billion (importer but re-exports processed cotton)
- Uzbekistan – $792 million
- Australia – $1.68 billion
- Bangladesh – $8.9 billion (as a top importer) (
) (
).
Both groundnut and cotton exports are dominated by a few key countries, with the U.S. leading in cotton exports and India and the U.S. being major groundnut exporters.
You said:
8…Was Nigeria ever the world’s largest exporter of either groundnut or cotton?
ChatGPT said:
ChatGPT
Yes, Nigeria was once the world’s largest exporter of both groundnuts and cotton at different points in history.
Groundnuts:
During the 1950s and 1960s, Nigeria was the largest exporter of groundnuts (peanuts) globally. The northern region of Nigeria, particularly Kano, became famous for groundnut pyramids, which symbolized the country’s dominance in global groundnut exports. This was a key part of the Nigerian economy during the colonial and post-colonial periods, contributing significantly to foreign exchange earnings. However, with the discovery of oil in the 1970s, agriculture—including groundnut production—was neglected, leading to a sharp decline in Nigeria’s global standing as a top groundnut exporter.
Cotton:
Similarly, Nigeria was also a leading exporter of cotton in the early 20th century, especially during the colonial period. Cotton production was centered in the northern region, where it was grown extensively and processed through ginning plants. Nigeria played a prominent role in global cotton exports, with much of its output going to Britain. However, the cotton industry also suffered due to the post-oil boom neglect of agriculture and inconsistent policies, which led to a decline in production and exports over the years (
) (
) (
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While Nigeria no longer holds the top position in the export of these commodities, both crops remain important in the country’s agricultural sector.
You said:
9…What’s Nigeria’s total oil export volumes and earnings in the last 10 years? Same for gas?
ChatGPT said:
ChatGPT
Searched 5 sites
Over the last 10 years, Nigeria has earned significant revenue from oil and gas exports, though the figures have fluctuated due to various global and local factors.
Oil Export Volumes and Earnings:
- Between 2010 and 2019, Nigeria earned approximately $418.5 billion from oil and gas exports. The highest revenue within this period was in 2011 at $68.44 billion, while the lowest revenue was in 2016 at $17.05 billiondue to falling global oil prices (
) (
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- In 2020, revenue dropped significantly to $20.43 billion, largely due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the resulting global oil price crash (
).
- In 2019, oil export earnings were around $34.22 billion, up from $32.63 billion in 2018 (
).
Gas Export Volumes and Earnings:
- In 2019, Nigeria produced 3.05 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, generating around $247.79 million from gas sales (
).
- While oil still dominates the sector, gas is becoming an increasingly important part of Nigeria’s energy exports, with growing investments aimed at boosting production and liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports.
These revenues are crucial for Nigeria, as oil and gas exports account for over 90% of the country’s export earnings and contribute significantly to government revenue.
You said:
10…Give similar statistics for Saudi Arabia, Russia, Venezuela and Kuwait, for both oil and gas, separately.
ChatGPT said:
ChatGPT
Searched 5 sites
Here is an overview of the oil and gas export revenues for Saudi Arabia, Russia, Venezuela, and Kuwait over the past decade:
Saudi Arabia
- Oil Revenues: Saudi Arabia, the largest global oil exporter, earned around $326 billion in oil revenue in 2022, the highest in the past decade. Over the past ten years, oil has accounted for over 70% of Saudi Arabia’s total exports. The country’s earnings have fluctuated, influenced by OPEC+ decisions, geopolitical events, and oil price variations (
) (
).
- Gas Revenues: Saudi Arabia is more focused on oil, but it is also expanding its natural gas production. While specific gas revenue figures are limited, most of its gas is utilized for domestic power generation rather than exports (
).
Russia
- Oil Revenues: Russia has remained a dominant oil exporter, earning substantial revenues from its oil exports. In recent years, revenues reached $150–200 billion annually, but sanctions following the Ukraine war have led to significant reductions in 2023. However, oil exports rebounded slightly due to high prices in late 2023 (
).
- Gas Revenues: Before the Ukraine conflict, Russia earned around €10 billion per year from liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports to Europe. Gas revenues have since declined due to sanctions, although Russia continues to export LNG to other regions (
).
Venezuela
- Oil Revenues: Venezuela, once a leading oil producer, has experienced a dramatic decline in oil production and exports over the past decade due to political instability, mismanagement, and sanctions. Its oil revenue peaked at around $80–100 billion annually in the early 2010s but dropped significantly to less than $10 billion in recent years (
).
- Gas Revenues: Venezuela’s gas sector remains underdeveloped, and most of its gas is used domestically or flared due to a lack of infrastructure. As a result, its gas export revenue is minimal.
Kuwait
- Oil Revenues: Kuwait earned around $60 billion annually from oil in the early 2010s, with oil exports accounting for the vast majority of its total exports. In 2022, Kuwait’s oil revenues were around $80 billion, buoyed by high global prices. However, political challenges have hindered Kuwait’s ability to scale up production (
).
- Gas Revenues: Kuwait’s natural gas production is mostly associated with its oil operations, and the country relies on LNG imports to meet domestic demand during peak periods. Kuwait’s gas export revenue remains modest (
).
These countries have all seen fluctuations in their revenues due to varying global oil prices, geopolitical events, and domestic production capacities.
You said:
11…Give, for the past ten years, the top 3 agric export products, volumes, and earnings for Ivory Coast, Ghana, Congo DRC, Kenya, South Africa, and Nigeria.
ChatGPT said:
ChatGPT
Searched 5 sites
Here is an overview of the top three agricultural export products, their volumes, and earnings over the past decade for the selected countries:
Ivory Coast
- Cocoa Beans: Cocoa is the leading export, with revenues of $5 billion in 2022, making up 30% of total exports. The country produces about 2 million tons of cocoa annually (
) (
).
- Rubber: In 2022, rubber exports earned around $1.86 billion, constituting 11.4% of total exports (
).
- Cashew Nuts: Cashew nuts earned approximately $1.2 billion in 2022, solidifying Ivory Coast’s position as one of the top exporters (
).
Ghana
- Cocoa Beans: Like Ivory Coast, Ghana is a major cocoa producer, earning around $2 billion annually, making it the second-largest exporter globally (
).
- Cashew Nuts: Cashew exports from Ghana have been growing, with the country earning $370 million in 2022 (
).
- Fruits (Pineapples and Bananas): Exports of fruits, especially pineapples and bananas, contributed about $200 million annually (
).
Congo DRC
- Coffee: Coffee remains one of the top agricultural exports for Congo DRC, with an average of 100,000 tonsexported annually, earning around $120 million.
- Palm Oil: Palm oil is another significant export, bringing in approximately $50 million per year.
- Cocoa: Although smaller than Ivory Coast or Ghana, Congo DRC’s cocoa industry contributes roughly $40 millionannually.
Kenya
- Tea: Kenya is the world’s largest exporter of black tea, earning around $1.2 billion annually from over 500,000 tons of tea exported (
).
- Cut Flowers: Kenya’s flower industry is among the largest globally, contributing $900 million annually (
).
- Coffee: Coffee exports generate $230 million, with Kenya producing around 50,000 tons of coffee per year (
).
South Africa
- Citrus Fruits: South Africa is a major exporter of citrus fruits, especially oranges, earning about $1.7 billionannually (
).
- Wine: South Africa’s wine industry is a key export, bringing in $500 million annually (
).
- Table Grapes: Table grapes contribute around $700 million to South Africa’s export earnings (
).
Nigeria
- Cocoa Beans: Nigeria’s superior quality cocoa beans lead its agricultural exports, generating N258.45 billion(about $563 million) in 2023 (
).
- Sesamum Seeds: Nigeria’s sesame seed exports reached N253.69 billion (about $552 million) in 2023 (
).
- Cashew Nuts: Both in-shell and shelled cashew nuts combined brought in over N190 billion (about $400 million) (
).
Each country’s agricultural sector plays a critical role in their economy, with export revenues primarily driven by cash crops such as cocoa, tea, and coffee.
You said:
12…Tabulate the land mass, and percentage arable land, for the same countries, viz Ivory Coast, Ghana, Congo DRC, Kenya, South Africa, and Nigeria. Add Israel. Calculate the agric export earnings of each country, per square kilometre of land.
ChatGPT said:
ChatGPT
Here is the calculated information based on the land mass, arable land percentage, and agricultural export earnings:
| Country | Land Mass (sq km) | Percentage Arable Land (%) | Agric Export Earnings (USD billion) | Earnings per sq km (USD) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ivory Coast | 322,463 | 9.1% | 6.86 | 21,271 |
| Ghana | 238,533 | 20.7% | 2.57 | 10,775 |
| Congo DRC | 2,344,858 | 11.2% | 0.21 | 89 |
| Kenya | 580,367 | 10.1% | 2.33 | 4,014 |
| South Africa | 1,219,090 | 10.3% | 2.90 | 2,379 |
| Nigeria | 923,769 | 37.3% | 1.23 | 1,331 |
| Israel | 22,072 | 20.4% | 2.41 | 109,187 |
The agricultural export earnings per square kilometer give an idea of how efficiently each country is utilizing its land for agricultural exports. Israel, despite its small size, has the highest earnings per square kilometer.