Emefiele's perceived "over-dramatisation" of economic analysis by economists

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Emefiele tells economists to stop “overdramatizing” analysis that can create Panic

CBN has assured that the nation’s economy will emerge out of recession in the first quarter of 2021.

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has assured that the nation’s economy will grow by 2% in 2021. The apex bank is optimistic that its various intervention will make Nigeria emerge out of recession in the first quarter of 2021.

This was disclosed by the Governor, CBN, Godwin Emefiele while delivering his keynote address at the 55th Annual Bankers Dinner of the Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria (CIBN) in Lagos on Friday.

What he is saying

He said, “We expect that growth in 2021 would attain 2.0 percent. It is important to insulate the economy from shocks that may undermine the attainment of the projected 2.0 percent economic growth.

However, downside risks remain, as restoration of full economic activities, particularly in service-related sectors, remains uncertain until a COVID vaccine is produced and made available to millions of people across the world.

“Second, with the significant rise in cases in advanced markets and the imposition of lockdowns in parts of Europe, concerns remain on the impact this could have on growth in advanced economies, commodity prices and the financial markets.”

He emphasized on the need to find ways to insulate the economy from the impact of these shocks through diversification efforts, while also working to ensure that the nation adheres to safety protocols in order to prevent a surge in COVID-19 related cases, as this could further cripple economic activities.

Stop overdramatizing analysis

Emefiele appealed to economic analysts to stay clear from analysis that can create panic and thus hamper the economic recovery process. “When you overdramatized you create panic in the system and that slows down the process of recovery.

“Our actions in 2021 would be guided by the considerations that emerged from the Monetary Policy Committee meeting of November 23 & 24, 2020, which sought to address the major headwinds exerting downward pressure on output growth and upward pressure on domestic prices,” he added.

Mr. Emefiele has often accused “armchair” economists of making exaggerated comments when expressing their views on the economy.

Analysis such as that when 75% of national income is dedicated to debt service it means a perpetual borrowing cycle, which in turn means recession, basically. Interventions such as throwing little sums of money at huge deficits are intended to buffer the economy from shocks? I think we are just relying on God, typically as Nigerians. How God will work here is through our informal sector and through remittances from the diaspora which are not dependent on internal productivity.